Kathy Hochul cannot break 50% support among likely New York voters, and her lead is shrinking fast.
A new Siena Research Institute poll found the Democratic governor leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by just ten points, 49% to 39%. That sounds comfortable until you compare it to June, when Hochul led Blakeman by twenty points among registered voters. The gap has been cut in half.
Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, is also winning independents and outperforming Hochul on several personal characteristics, according to the survey. Those are warning signs for any incumbent heading into a general election.
As originally reported, Siena pollster Steven Greenberg put it plainly: “With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark. In June, among registered voters, Hochul’s lead was twice as large, 52-32%.”
The poll surveyed 811 likely New York voters between August 3rd and August 6th, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Eleven percent of respondents were undecided or declined to answer, and one percent chose another candidate.
Hochul’s personal numbers are not doing her any favors either. Just 46% of likely voters viewed her favorably, while 49% viewed her unfavorably. Her job approval rating was similarly underwater, with 48% approving and 49% disapproving of her performance as governor.
For an incumbent running in a state that voted heavily Democratic in recent cycles, failing to crack 50% in a head-to-head matchup this close to Election Day is a notable red flag. Blakeman still faces a steep climb, but the numbers suggest the race is far from settled.