Cook Political Report just downgraded New Hampshire’s Senate race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up.”
That single ratings shift, announced Tuesday, reshuffles one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterm cycle. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu are now locked in what Cook officially considers a coin-flip race for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
Both candidates secured their nominations in the Sept. 8 primaries. Pappas has held New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District since 2019. Sununu is no newcomer either, having served three terms in the House and one term in the Senate before leaving office in 2009.
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As originally reported, recent polling shows just how tight this race has become. A University of New Hampshire survey from August put Sununu ahead 45% to 43%. A Saint Anselm College poll from roughly the same period flipped the script, showing Pappas leading 48% to 41%. Then a co/efficient poll conducted Sept. 14 found both candidates tied at 46% among likely voters. Three polls, three different snapshots, all pointing to the same conclusion: nobody has a real lead.
Sununu also carries a political brand that carries serious weight in the Granite State. His father, John H. Sununu, served as governor and later as White House chief of staff under President George H.W. Bush. His brother, Chris Sununu, served four terms as New Hampshire governor. The family name is not just recognizable in New Hampshire, it is practically woven into the state’s political history.
That brand matters in a state known for ticket splitting and razor-thin margins. Democrats have won every U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire since 2010, but some of those wins were barely wins at all. Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan’s first Senate victory in 2016 came by roughly 1,000 votes.
Cook’s downgrade lands less than two months before the Nov. 3 election. New Hampshire now joins a broader group of Senate contests the publication places in its Toss Up column. With Senate control genuinely in play, both parties are expected to pour significant resources into the state in the final weeks of the campaign.
For Democrats, losing New Hampshire would sting on multiple levels. It has been reliably blue in Senate races for over a decade. Shaheen herself was a fixture of that winning streak. Replacing her was never going to be simple, but a tied race this close to Election Day makes the path forward considerably harder for Pappas.
For Sununu, the Cook shift is validation that his candidacy is serious and competitive. Whether his family legacy or his own Senate record proves more persuasive to New Hampshire voters will be answered on Nov. 3.
