Oregon has not elected a Republican governor in more than four decades.
That streak may finally be in jeopardy. Republican Christine Drazan is running neck and neck with Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in the latest polling out of Oregon, a state that has been a reliable Democratic stronghold for decades.
A new survey from Public Opinion Strategies puts Drazan at 48% and Kotek at 44%. The four-point gap falls within the poll’s margin of error, so neither candidate holds a statistically clear lead. The survey reached 600 registered Oregon voters by phone between June 22 and June 24 and was commissioned by the Drazan campaign.
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The numbers are striking because Democrats have held the Oregon governorship since Republican Vic Atiyeh won reelection in 1982.
The two candidates have faced each other before. This is a rematch of the 2022 governor’s race, when Kotek defeated Drazan in a three-way contest. Official results show Kotek collected 917,074 votes, roughly 47%, while Drazan finished with 850,347 votes, about 43.6%. A third candidate, Betsy Johnson, drew more than 168,000 votes, or about 8.6% of the total. With no major independent in the 2026 race, the dynamic has changed considerably.
As originally reported, an earlier poll from Hoffman Research Group in May showed the two candidates tied at 45% each among likely voters, with a four-point margin of error and a sample of 603 likely general-election voters.
The Public Opinion Strategies survey also revealed deep voter frustration with the state’s current direction. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said Oregon is on the wrong track, compared with just 38% who believe it is heading the right way. Kotek’s job approval is similarly weak, with 57% disapproving of her performance and only 38% approving.
Drazan’s support is especially strong outside the Portland metro area. She leads 56% to 29% in the Medford market, 54% to 40% in smaller markets across the state, and 49% to 45% in the Eugene market. In Portland itself, the race is essentially tied, with Kotek at 46% and Drazan at 45%.
The two have a long history beyond the 2022 race. Before becoming governor, Kotek served as speaker of the Oregon House. Drazan served as the chamber’s Republican leader. The two clashed repeatedly over policy and tactics, including a Republican walkout that helped kill a Democratic cap-and-trade bill.
Drazan won her party’s 2026 nomination in May, defeating a field that included state Rep. Ed Diehl and former Portland Trail Blazers player Chris Dudley. Kotek won the Democratic primary without serious opposition and is seeking a second term.
Drazan has built her campaign around affordability, housing, homelessness, education, and government accountability. Her economic plan calls for reviewing regulations and fees she says drive up costs for housing, energy, transportation, health care, and business. She has also pledged to block new tax increases and push for clearer accountability in state homelessness spending.
