A new poll in New Mexico shows the 2nd Congressional District race is a statistical tie.
A SurveyUSA survey commissioned by KOB 4 found Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez leading Republican challenger Greg Cunningham by just three percentage points, 46% to 43%. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 points, which means the race is effectively deadlocked. With 11% of likely voters still undecided, the outcome is wide open.
The survey sampled 554 likely voters in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, a seat that has already produced two razor-thin elections. Vasquez defeated then-incumbent Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell by less than one percentage point in 2022, then won their 2024 rematch 52.1% to 47.9%. President Donald Trump carried the same district in 2024 with 49.9% of the vote, making it one of 23 Trump-won House districts still held by a Democrat.
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According to a report, the poll reveals sharp divides across voter groups. Vasquez leads among women by 13 points and among Latino voters by 20 points. Cunningham holds a five-point edge among men and an 11-point advantage among white voters. Those numbers highlight both the challenge and the opportunity for Cunningham as he works to build a winning coalition.
Cunningham has centered his campaign on outreach to Hispanic voters in a state where roughly half the population is Latino. His pitch leans on family, faith, public safety, and shared cultural values. He told Fox News that “Hispanic culture is at its core a conservative culture.” Despite that effort, the polling shows he still has significant ground to cover with Latino voters specifically.
Cunningham is a first-time congressional candidate with a background in military and law enforcement. He served as a Marine reconnaissance veteran in combat, then joined the Albuquerque Police Department. His career there included patrol work, narcotics assignments, and service as a Drug Enforcement Administration task-force officer, including undercover work on drug and cartel cases. He later worked in private security before entering the race.
National Republicans have taken the seat seriously. House Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to New Mexico in late August to campaign alongside Cunningham. The National Republican Congressional Committee has listed the district among races where its internal polling shows Republicans either leading or tied within the margin of error.
Vasquez holds a substantial fundraising lead, having raised roughly $3.78 million through June 30, compared to Cunningham’s $1.51 million. Major election forecasters still rate the seat as favoring Democrats, with ratings ranging from “Tilt Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
Still, Vasquez remains below 50% support despite the advantages of incumbency, and more than one in ten voters have not yet made up their minds. Cunningham summarized the challenge himself: “I just have to convince [New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District] why we can win this.”
