A new poll puts Minnesota’s open Senate race inside the margin of error, with Republican Michele Tafoya trailing by just 3.8 points.
The Quantus Insights survey shows Democrat Peggy Flanagan leading 48.2% to Tafoya’s 44.4% among likely voters. Another 4.3% remain undecided. When leaners are folded in, the gap closes only slightly, with Flanagan at 48.9% and Tafoya at 45.4%. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
That puts the race statistically tied, a remarkable position for a Republican in a state where the party has not won a statewide election since 2006.
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Major forecasters are not yet buying the upset. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rate the contest as likely Democratic. But the numbers give the GOP a concrete reason to invest in the race.
As originally reported, the survey also found that 88.6% of voters already supporting a candidate say their minds are fully made up, leaving both campaigns with a thin slice of persuadable voters to fight over.
The poll reveals sharp dividing lines across gender, age, and geography. Flanagan leads women by 54% to 40%, while Tafoya holds a 50% to 41% edge among men. Younger voters lean heavily toward Flanagan, who leads 63% to 34% among those aged 30 to 44. Tafoya flips the script among middle-aged Minnesotans, leading those between 45 and 64 by 54% to 38%, and holds a narrow advantage among voters 65 and older. Urban Minnesota belongs to Flanagan. Rural Minnesota belongs to Tafoya.
The race is for the seat held by Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who announced in 2025 she would not seek another term.
Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, is building her campaign around voter frustration over Minnesota’s large-scale public-assistance fraud scandals. Flanagan served as lieutenant governor under Gov. Tim Walz, giving Tafoya material to press on government oversight and accountability.
Flanagan won the Democratic primary in August, defeating Rep. Angie Craig, who ran as the more moderate option. Tafoya emerged from a competitive Republican field to claim her party’s nomination.
On personal favorability, Flanagan is slightly positive at 50% favorable and 45.9% unfavorable. Tafoya is nearly perfectly split, at 42.4% favorable and 42% unfavorable. Her lower name recognition is a double-edged reality. It leaves room to grow, but it also means Democrats could move to define her before her own campaign does.
Quantus surveyed 720 likely Minnesota voters, with an effective sample of 545 respondents.
