Marsha Blackburn leads Tennessee’s 2026 governor’s race by 21 points, according to a new poll.
The Beacon Center survey puts the Republican senator at 55% among likely voters, compared to 34% for Democratic nominee Jerri Green. The race is to fill the seat being vacated by two-term Gov. Bill Lee.
Blackburn’s lead comes despite a bruising Republican primary against Congressman John Rose and state Rep. Monty Fritts. The Beacon Center noted that lingering divisions from that contest have not yet hurt her standing heading into the general election.
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Tennessee’s U.S. Senate race shows an even wider gap. GOP incumbent Bill Hagerty pulls 58% support against Democrat Marquita Bradshaw’s 33%. The two previously faced off in 2020.
As originally reported, the Beacon poll also measured approval ratings across the state, and the numbers carry a warning sign for Republicans nationally. President Donald Trump’s approval has slipped underwater for the first time in Beacon’s polling history, with 48% approving and 51% disapproving.
Beacon CEO Justin Owen called it a significant shift. “This is a substantial development in a deep red state with a number of potentially competitive races this year,” Owen said. “While Trump is barely underwater with voters, this is a monumental shift from his 30-point victory here just two years ago.”
The survey also looked ahead to 2028. In a hypothetical Tennessee Republican presidential primary, Vice President JD Vance led with 56%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in second at 22%, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis placed third at 11%.
On the Democratic side, former Vice President Kamala Harris topped the hypothetical primary at 30%. California Gov. Gavin Newsom followed at 18%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg placed third at 11%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez came in fourth at 10%, and Sen. Mark Kelly finished at 8%.
Party approval ratings offered more encouraging news for Republicans. The GOP holds a net approval of plus 26 points in Tennessee. Democrats stand at plus 10. Among independents, the gap leans Republican at plus 21 points.
The poll also touched on an unexpected topic. Data centers emerged as a notable issue for voters, though most said they lacked enough information to take a clear position. The survey found that only 4% of Tennesseans correctly identified data centers as having existed for more than 50 years. A plurality of 38% guessed they have only been around for the past five years, and 31% said they were not sure at all.
Tennessee remains solidly red at the statewide level. But Trump’s first underwater approval rating in the state, this close to the 2026 midterms, is the number both parties will be watching most closely going forward.
