A recent survey conducted by Emerson College Polling in collaboration with KLFY News 10 indicates that incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy is currently in third place in the Republican primary race for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana. The poll reveals that state Treasurer John Fleming leads with 28% of likely GOP primary voters, closely followed by Representative Julia Letlow at 27%. Cassidy has garnered the support of 21% of respondents, while 22% remain undecided.
Primary Race Dynamics
According to Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, the results suggest that if the Republican primary were held tomorrow, the likelihood of a June runoff would increase, as no candidate appears poised to meet the required 50% threshold. This indicates a competitive race among the candidates, reflecting the nuanced sentiments of the GOP voter base.
Voter Demographics and Preferences
The poll highlights the demographic breakdown of support among male and female voters. Fleming appears to have an advantage among male voters, securing 36% to Letlow’s 27%, while only 20% of men support Cassidy. In contrast, the female voter demographic is more evenly distributed, with 27% favoring Letlow, 23% supporting Cassidy, and 21% backing Fleming.
Age demographics present a varied picture. Voters under the age of 40 show stronger support for Cassidy at 30%. Letlow follows with 21%, while Fleming trails at 16%. Among voters aged 40 to 50, Fleming leads with 28%, just ahead of Letlow at 24% and Cassidy at 23%. This trend continues as the age groups increase; among those over 60, Fleming retains the lead with 32%, followed closely by Letlow at 31%, while Cassidy accounts for just 16% of this demographic.
Candidate Ratings
The survey also included candidate ratings among likely Republican primary voters. Cassidy received a 49% unfavorable rating alongside a 30% favorable rating, with 19% remaining neutral. Letlow’s ratings reveal a 40% favorable score compared to a 31% unfavorable rating, with 25% neutral and 4% indicating they had never heard of her. Fleming, on the other hand, holds a 42% favorable rating, with 15% unfavorable, and 36% neutral; 8% of respondents stated they had never heard of him.
Support for Trump’s Agenda and Key Issues
When asked which candidate would be most aligned with the Trump administration’s agenda, the poll indicates that 41% of respondents selected Letlow, while 26% chose Fleming and 21% favored Cassidy. Notably, 10% of participants expressed that none of the candidates would effectively support Trump’s policies.
The survey also revealed that economic concerns remain the top issue for voters, with 43% prioritizing this topic. Crime follows at 16%, while education, healthcare, immigration, and threats to democracy account for 10%, 9%, 8%, and 5% respectively.
On the topic of carbon capture, public opinion is divided: 34% view it negatively for Louisiana, 17% positively, while 49% remain uncertain about its implications.
The Emerson College Polling Louisiana survey was conducted from April 24-26, 2026, with a sample size of 500 likely Republican primary voters. The results carry a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.