A new Minnesota poll puts Republican Michele Tafoya just two points behind Democrat Peggy Flanagan in the U.S. Senate race.
The survey, conducted by TechnoMetrica (TIPP) for the League of American Workers between August 31 and September 2, 2026, covered 1,494 registered voters statewide. The subsample of likely voters totaled 1,201, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.
On a multi-candidate ballot, Flanagan pulled 40 percent support to Tafoya’s 38 percent. Independent Marisa Simonetti landed at four percent, other candidates at three percent, and 14 percent of respondents remained undecided. That two-point margin falls inside the poll’s stated error range.
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As originally reported, a head-to-head matchup from the same survey, listed by RealClearPolitics, showed Flanagan at 44 percent and Tafoya at 42 percent, a gap of just two points.
The poll also captured broader political sentiment in the state. President Donald Trump’s job approval sat at 36 percent, with 58 percent disapproving. Governor Tim Walz posted similar numbers, with 42 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving of his performance. Among voters without a college degree, Walz’s net approval rating was minus 14 points.
U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar registered a favorability rating of just 28 percent statewide. On immigration attitudes, 33 percent of respondents said Somali immigration had improved Minnesota. Seventy-seven percent said Christian migrants assimilate well into American society, compared to 39 percent who said the same about Muslim migrants.
Earlier polls told a similar but slightly different story. A KSTP/SurveyUSA survey of 661 likely voters, taken August 13 through 17, showed Flanagan ahead 46 to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided. An Emerson College poll from February 6 through 8, covering 1,000 registered voters, had Flanagan at 47 percent and Tafoya at 41 percent.
Tafoya, formerly a prominent sports broadcaster, secured the Republican nomination in August. Flanagan has served as lieutenant governor since 2019 and won her Democratic primary the same month, after sitting Senator Tina Smith announced she would not seek another term.
The RealClearPolitics polling average for the race, spanning surveys from February 6 through September 2, puts Flanagan at 45.7 percent and Tafoya at 41.3 percent. That represents a 4.4-point Flanagan advantage. RealClearPolitics currently rates the contest as Leans Democratic, though the tightening numbers suggest the race is far from settled.
