John Sununu now leads Chris Pappas in New Hampshire’s open Senate race, a first in public polling.
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll puts former U.S. Senator John Sununu ahead of U.S. Representative Chris Pappas by two points, 45 percent to 43 percent. The survey tested a hypothetical general election matchup for New Hampshire’s open U.S. Senate seat and marks the first publicly released poll to place Sununu numerically ahead of Pappas.
The survey ran online from August 20 to 24 using members of the probability-based Granite State Panel. A total of 2,143 New Hampshire residents completed the questionnaire. Among the 1,878 likely general election voters in the sample, the margin of error is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points, meaning the two-point Sununu advantage falls within that range.
Five percent of respondents said they would back another candidate, and seven percent remained undecided.
As originally reported, the shift is notable because the UNH Survey Center’s June poll told a different story. At that point, Pappas led Sununu by three points, 47 percent to 44 percent. The race has since flipped, at least within the bounds of statistical uncertainty.
Partisan loyalty runs high on both sides. Democrats back Pappas at 85 percent, while Republicans support Sununu at 92 percent. Among independent voters, a 41 percent plurality breaks toward Sununu, a potentially telling signal in a state where independents carry real weight.
Polling aggregators that have folded in the August UNH numbers still show Pappas with a slim overall advantage, though the broader trend shows the race narrowing. As of late August, 270toWin gave Pappas a 45.5 percent chance of winning compared to 43 percent for Sununu. The RealClearPolitics average, which had not yet included the August UNH survey at the time of publication, showed Pappas ahead by between 2.0 and 3.3 points depending on the time window applied.
This UNH survey is the first to put Sununu on top. Taken together with other recent polling, the contest appears genuinely competitive as New Hampshire heads toward its September primary and the November general election.