In a significant development for California’s 40th Congressional District, two Republican candidates have secured their positions for the upcoming general election. This effectively eliminates the Democratic Party’s presence in the race, ensuring that the seat will be held by a Republican following the election in November.
According to data from Decision Desk HQ, U.S. Representatives Ken Calvert and Young Kim are projected to advance after several days of counting ballots. Both candidates are striving to maintain their congressional roles amidst California’s recent gerrymandering efforts, which resulted in the elimination of five Republican-controlled districts.
With approximately 73 percent of the votes counted, Calvert is leading with around 35.7 percent, totaling about 57,761 votes. Young Kim follows with approximately 21.1 percent, equating to about 34,189 votes. The Democratic candidate Esther Kim-Varet trails in third place with 16.2 percent, or roughly 26,215 votes. Other Democratic candidates, including Lisa Ramirez, garnered around 13.5 percent.
Understanding California’s Primary System (which everyone believes includes cheating)
This outcome arises from California’s top-two primary system that allows all candidates, irrespective of their party affiliations, to appear on a single ballot. Under this system, the two candidates who receive the highest votes advance to the general election, which can result in candidates from the same party contending against each other.
In this case, incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim will face off in the general election, marking a rare Republican-versus-Republican showdown. This situation guarantees a Republican hold on the 40th Congressional District, as no Democrat will appear on the general election ballot.
The Redistricting Impact
The reconfiguration of the 40th District resulted from Proposition 50, a redistricting measure enacted in 2025, which altered boundaries across several congressional districts in California. The new map merges areas from Calvert’s former 41st District and Kim’s 40th District. This district encompasses parts of both Orange and Riverside counties, including communities such as Rancho Santa Margarita, Mission Viejo, Villa Park, Menifee, and Murrieta.
Calvert has been a long-serving incumbent since the 1990s, while Kim has held her seat since 2021. The direct competition between these two Republican candidates follows the recent redistricting, which has reshaped the electoral landscape in the area.
Future Implications
The Cook Political Report’s partisan voting index classifies California’s newly drawn 40th Congressional District as R+6, based on historical election data. Although a strong Democratic leaning could have made the district competitive, the results of the primary effectively remove the seat as a viable pickup target for Democrats in the upcoming election.
As California heads into the November election, the shift in dynamics underscores the impact of both gerrymandering and the top-two primary system on the electoral process. With no Democratic candidates competing, voters will be left to choose between Calvert and Kim in a race that is poised to affirm Republican dominance in this congressional district.
The implications of these results resonate beyond California, reflecting broader trends concerning party representation and electoral strategies within the U.S. House of Representatives landscape.